VIRAL PANDEMIC

For information on Swine Flu please see below.

A pandemic is a disease that spreads across a wide geographic area -- potentially the entire World -- and which affects a large proportion of the population. Human viral pandemics have occurred in the past in the form of influenza pandemics with fairly devastating results. For example, it is estimated that between 40 and 50 million million people died in the 1918-1919 "Spanish Flu" pandemic, between one to two million in the 1957-1958 "Asian Flu" pandemic, and towards one million in the "Hong Kong flu" pandemic of 1968-1969. Based on a repeating cycle of roughly 30 years, scientists believe that we are overdue for another pandemic. It is also quite probable that this may be in the form of "Avian Flu" or "Bird Flu" based on an A/H5N1 strain.

There is already an A/H5N1 Avian Flu pandemic amongst birds in over 50 countries. There have also already been 409 cases of humans contracting the virus from very close contact with infected poultry. Such cases have now been confirmed in 17 countries. The mortality rate for those who have contracted the disease has also been 63 per cent. The concern is that if an A/H5N1 virus mutates to become highly contagious amongst humans then a global pandemic will result that may kill millions or tens of millions of people, with tens or hundreds of millions requiring medical attention. Indeed, in the UK the House of Lords Select Committee on Intergovernmental Organizations published a report on 21st July 2008 which stated that "while there was not been a pandemic since 1968, another one is inevitable... Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between 2 million and 50 million people worldwide... Socio-economic disruption will be massive".

In all probability pandemic are likely to go global in four to six weeks of the first cases being reported and to last up to 18 months. During this period, and as a result of the illness, the fear of the illness, containment measures, and their combined economic impact, are therefore likelto to cause serious disruption to business, education and all other aspects of human civilization. All Governments and other organizations therefore need to have pandemic preparedness plans in place. Useful websites to assist with such planning include the US Government's PandemicFlu.gov, the World Health Organization's Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response website, and the UK Government's dh.gov.uk/pandemicflu. The UK's National Framework for Responding to an Influenza Pandemic is a particularly clear if stark document, if definitely not for those of a nervous disposition.

Swine Flu: The Pandemic That Cried Wolf? -- updated 27th August 2010

Following an outbreak of a form of H1N1 flu labelled "Swine Flu" in April 2009, on 11th June 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a level 6 pandemic alert, stating that "world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic" -- the first in 41 years. What the level 6 alert meant was that Swine Flu had been demonstrating human-to-human transmission and had caused a community-level outbreak in multiple WHO regions.

Swine flu is of a similar strain to the flu outbreak that caused the 1918-1919 "Spanish Flu" pandemic. By the 6th of July 2009 worldwide there had been 94,512 laboratory confirmed cases resulting in 429 deaths -- figures that compared to 59,814 cases and 263 deaths on 26th of June, 28,774 cases and 144 deaths on 11th June, and 13,001 cases and 92 deaths on 19th May. Based on the available data at the time, the WHO's response was almost certainly justified. However, as we now all know, for most individuals Swine Flu proved to be a relatively mild condition, with fears of mass-death, widespread illness and industrial disruption turning out to be unfounded.

On 10th August 2010 the WHO declared that "the world is no longer in phase 6 of influenza pandemic alert. We are now moving into the post-pandemic period. The new H1N1 virus has largely run its course". As it went on to explain "recently published studies indicate that 20–40 per cent of populations in some areas have been infected by the H1N1 virus and thus have some level of protective immunity. Many countries report good vaccination coverage, especially in high-risk groups, and this coverage further increases community-wide immunity. . . . Thanks to extensive preparedness and support from the international community, even countries with very weak health systems were able to detect cases and report them promptly. . . . Had things gone wrong in any of these areas, we would be in a very different situation today."

As the WHO also stated on 10th August 2010, "this time around, we have been aided by pure good luck". However, this does not mean that the world will not experience a far more serious pandemic in the future. We do indeed need to raise our awareness that the natural world is starting to react more and more forcefully to the global contagion that is the human race. In 2009 alone, alongside "Swine Flu" we saw Ebola transmitted from pigs to humans and several reported cases of bubonic plague. What most needs to be appreciated is therefore that it is not any one particular pandemic that matters, but the implications for humanity of the broader occurrence of deadly global diseases on an overcrowded planet.