PANDORA'S BOX?

Since early humans picked up bones and rocks to pound, cut and kill, technology has been used to change the world and to alter the manner of our existence. In the early 21st century, the technological possibilities that lie ahead are also quite mind bending. The lines between "artificial" and "natural" are blurring by the day, whilst the limits on what can and may be possible lessen with each new technical breakthrough and scientific discovery.

Whether or not technology changes the world or we choose to change the world with technology is a matter of sometimes heated but also highly relevant debate. However, what cannot reasonably be denied is that decisions relating to future technology application will in no small part shape the destiny of us all. Almost certainly, genies will not be able to be capped back in bottles. Given that technologies can potentially impact on the products and services that organizations offer, the way they are run, and the expectations of those people with whom them may communicate and trade, no business can therefore afford to ignore at least some of the technology developments identified below when it comes to planning for tomorrow.

3D Printing

3D printers are devices that output real, solid objects from computer data. Current 3D printers are increasingly used in industry for the production of rapid prototypes, to create masters and moulds from which final products will be manufactured, as well as to produce scale models (for example of new buildings) and for a wide range of medical and educational applications. Already it is possible to purchase a commercial 3D printer that outputs in full-colour. Entry level 3D printers can also now be purchased for (just) under $5000.

3D printers have the potential to help provide a more tangible bridge between the real world and the virtual realm of cyberspace, and are hence very much a part of the Second Digital Revolution. 3D printers may, for example, remove the need to keep physical stocks of spare parts by allowing organizations to maintain an online databases of components that can be printed out on demand (and as both NASA and the US Army are seriously investigating). In medical application, 3D printers may one day fairly soon also be used to output replacement human tissues and even entire organs. For more information on this quite remarkable but very real area of technology development, please see the 3D Printing page.

Augmented Reality

Augmented reality (AR) integrates the real world and cyberspace. The technology uses GPS and compass data from a mobile phone, tablet computer or similar device to work out where you are and what you are looking at. The video display from the device's camera is then overlaid with additional digital information in real time.

Augmented reality allows us to learn more about the buildings, people or other things we are looking at, or to see alternative views of the world. So, for example, any property for sale can be augmented with its price and other specifications, whilst direction arrows can float over roads. With integrated vision recognition -- as being developed by Google Goggles -- information will also be able to be overlaid on people or products. This could allow links to a person's Twitter Feed or Facebook account to float above their head, or nutrition or allergy information to hover over products on a supermarket shelf.

The first augmented reality browsers were launched in 2009, with around 200 million devices expected to be AR-capable by 2012. Already companies are springing up to capitalize on this new frontier. For example, AugmentedReality.co.uk is creating some fascinating AR applications in the Layar AR brower available for Android smartphones and certain iPhones. These include an application to overlay virtual 3D representations of the Beetles on the zebra crossing in Abbey Road, and with whom you can be photographed! The company has even built an application to allow visitors to Rotterdam to see a final version of its incomplete Provast market hall by simply pointing their phone at the construction site. For more you may want to read this great inteview with AR pioneer Howard Ogden.

Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is where computer software, user data and processing power are accessed from the Internet "cloud" rather than a local desktop or organizational data centre. Cloud computing therefore includes the development of software as a service (SaaS), such as Google Docs, platform as a service (PaaS), such as Google App Engine or Microsoft Azure, and infrastructure as a service (IaaS), such as Amazon Web Services. Cloud computing is also closely linked to the development of Web 2.0 as explored on our sister site at ExplainingComputers.com.

There are currently three key drivers of cloud computing. The first is that the cloud can make companies more competitive by reducing their need to invest in their own IT infrastructure. The second is the green agenda, with cloud services being able to be accessed by lower-power computers, and large cloud data centres being able to be run at optimal capacity and energy efficiency. Finally, cloud computing enables the development of new applications, such as augmented reality. For more information see the cloud computing section on ExplainingComputers.com and/or my ExplainingComputers Cloud Computing Video. You may also want to read my new book A Brief Guide to Cloud Computing.

Genetic Engineering

Genetic engineering is the science of altering the traits of living organisms by changing the genetic information encoded within their DNA. Genetic engineering can therefore involve genetic modification/manipulation (GM), and/or the splicing of genes between organisms in a process that creates artificial or "recombinant" DNA. Where gene splicing is conducted across species it is known as transgenics. Both transgenic plants and transgenic animals have already been created. For example, plants have been transgenically altered to produce insulin to treat diabetes, whilst transgenic mice have been bred to develop cancer.

Genetic engineering is likely to be one of the major areas of technological development of the 21st century. However, it faces massive technological challenges, as well as a host of ethical battles. For example, whilst GM crops have the potential to increase yields and hence to help overcome food shortages, public opposition to them in some territories (such as Europe) is preventing their use. Opportunities for parents to choose the traits of their children -- not just in order to prevent genetic diseases, but to select looks, strength, intelligence and behavioural predispositions -- will also become technically possible. However, whether or not laws, societies or religions will "permit" the sale of such medical services is uncertain, at least in the short term. For more information see the Genetic Engineering page.

Helium-3 Power Generation

Helium-3 has the potential to be the fuel for a new generation of clean nuclear fusion power plants. Unfortunately, helium-3 is also exceptionally rare on the Earth. There is, however, thought to be an abundant supply of helium-3 on the surface of the Moon. NASA, some Russian corporations, China and India have therefore announced plans or intentions to establish bases on the Moon over the next couple of decades in order to mine helium-3.

Given that one Space Shuttle cargo bay of helium-3 could power the United States for a year, a new helium-3 Space Race and related infrastructure development may become one of the most significant aspirations and accomplishments in human history. Mining lunar helium-3 may also become a large part of our "solution" to the oil shortage, broader fossil fuel depletion, and climate change. For more information see the Helium-3 Power page.

Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology is the art and science of manipulating matter at the near-atomic scale. It is already a $9bn+ industry, and has the potential to completely transform manufacturing and medicine. Indeed, nanotechnology pioneer Ralph Merkle has compared today's manufacturing methods to makings things with lego bricks whilst wearing boxing gloves. In contrast nanotechnology involves ungloved hands individually and precisely assembling each brick (or atom).

Nanotechnology may involve processes that are either "bottom-up" or "top-down". "Bottom-up" nanotechnology refers to construction at the atomic level practically one atom at a time. It may therefore involve future "nanobots" or "nanites" assembling new products at the atomic scale, and potentially turning one material into another, self-replicating, or being injected into the human body to repair damage and target disease at the cellular level. Whilst these concepts may sound far-fetched and in the realms of science fiction, it is worth remembering that rearranging matter, self-replicating and healing are something that biological matter has been doing for millions of years via a process we call "life". It is therefore hardly surprising that "bottom-up" nanotechnology is closely associated with developments in genetic engineering and the creation of biocomputers. Medical research in nanotechnology is already also fairly advanced.

Top-down nanotechnology less spectacularly but currently far more importantly involves atomic-precision manufacturing using more conventional "large scale" production processes such as those used in making microprocessors. As reported by the Nanotech Project, there are already over 500 "manufacturer-identified nanotechnology-based consumer products currently on the market". These include plasma screens with their glass strengthened with carbon nanotubes, tougher car paints, improved golf clubs, more effective sun creams, and OLED displays and longer-lasting batteries for mobile phones. Indeed, it has been estimated by Lux Research that global sales of products incorporating some form of nanotechnology will total over $2.5 trillion by 2014.

More information on nanotechnology can be found from the Foresight Nanotech Institute and from Zyvex Nanotechnology pages by Dr Ralph Merkle. You may also want to watch the fantastic Twinkie Guide to Nanotechnology by Andrew Maynard. It's just fab!